Insight into DC Winter Weather Forecasts
Late afternoon, Oct 27th (Thurs)
The models are converging on an answer, which, if this were to occur in another 45 days or so would yield a moderate 6-10 inch snowfall forecast. The forecast is compounded however by the knowledge the winter equations are in, and the 125 year history of the region says "it can't happen". Not to say the models are wrong, but this is one time where Stormy will err to the side of caution and suggest some flake are very possible to the west of the DC area overnight Friday into Saturday morning, but will nil accumulations occuring. Whether this system foreshadows the upcoming season....La Nina is coming in stronger than last year, which was a weak La Nina season. Stormys best guess is an above average precipitation year, but more likely in the form of cold rain, sleet, and freezing rain than snow. We'll see. And...we'll continue to monitor this system for any dramatic changes. Accumulating snows are possible to our west and north, on up into NY state and even New England with this early winter-like system.
Early evening, Oct 27th (Thurs)
One of our medium range models has now gone berserk....forecasting a storm of epic proportions and 18+ inches of snow. It is, however, the model which was "tweaked" this summer, and gives Stormy (indigestion) a reason not to believe. Waiting for the longer range model...due in by 7pm. I'll put up a copy of the forecast snow chart with the crazy amounts in the next hour.